Tropical Disturbances (20% and 30% chance of development)

The National Hurricane center is tracking two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic.

Tropical Disturbance #1 (D1) is moving rapidly from the Cape Verde area almost due westward and is expected to make a northern turn as it approaches the eastern Caribbean. NHC rates this system as having a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days.

More relevant to NE Florida, Tropical Disturbance #2 (D2) is a collection of showers and low pressure located approximately midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda. It is expected to take a westerly course over the next few days. NHC only rates this system as having a 20% chance of development into an organized storm system. It will nonetheless likely cause bad weather in the northeast Florida region.

The season is getting going in earnest at this point. If you have not purchased hurricane supplies or tested your generator/chainsaw, now would be the time to do so.

The 2021 Hurricane Season Approaches!

Hello friends! We are now within 30 days of the 2021 Hurricane season officially beginning. And that means it’s time to knock the dust of the Tropics.Watch blog and the NE Florida Hurricane Updates (NEFHU) Facebook Page.

As with previous years, I will post stuff on the tropics.watch blog that directly concern weather and also ancillary issues that people may find interesting. I will only push posts from tropics.watch to NEFHU if they specifically impact Northeast Florida. During Hurricane season you can go to basically any website you want to get an absolute tidal wave of information as people try to leverage an approaching storm for clicks and views. I don’t want to add more noise to an already noisy time.

For this reason, NEFHU is designed to ONLY feature updates and discussion that may directly impact Northeast Florida. I will post plenty of things here on tropics.watch, but only a subset will then be pushed to NEFHU to avoid drowning everyone in information.

So keep an eye out for future posts about incoming storms and preparation you can do!

Forecast Update – Invest 95L

Invest95L is a tropical system that is moving through central Caribbean. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. The NHC says 70% of formation in the next 48 hours and 80% in the next 5 days. The ECMWF (EURO) Model suggests that formation is likely and that this storm will remain off the Florida coast while following a similar track to Dorian.