9-27-2019 Midday Update

Two great pieces of news today


The NHC guidance says the following:

Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly
disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the
circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that
extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry.  A partial
ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of
the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered,
probably still generously, to 30 kt.

Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is
now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear.  The
shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and
also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to
weakening and further loss of organization.  Based on the latest
global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep
convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours and then
open up into a trough by day 3.  Given the cyclone's current
structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these
options could occur as soon as later today.


Lorenzo is exactly what we want out of Category 4 Hurricanes. It’s becoming extremely strong and well organized but it’s not expected to go near any major landmasses. Always nice to see a storm this powerful go and bugger off in the North Atlantic without hurting anyone.

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